Ukraine’s Diplomatic and Security Counter-Offensive in Africa
Hi everyone,
Welcome to the inaugural posting of my first substack column: Eye on Eurasia.
As I embark on some new endeavors, I look forward to sharing my insights with you on a region I have passionately followed for several decades. My goal is to identify and discuss important geopolitical developments in Eurasia, including new trends in warfare and technology.
Initially, Eye on Eurasia will focus on Russia, Ukraine and the Black Sea region but over time I aspire to cover other parts of the world as I expand my analytical horizons, and hopefully yours.
Glen
The Russia-Ukraine War Expands to Africa
Africa is unexpectedly emerging as a new front in the Russia-Ukraine war. As the war approaches its third year of fighting the conflict is now beginning to spill over into northeastern Africa. Thanks to a new Ukrainian diplomatic and covert security initiative the war is now heating up in a key country in the southern Sahara similar in some ways to the Cold War when the region became a battleground between East and West.
In recent months Ukraine has significantly boosted its regional profile as part of what the Ukrainian Minister of Foreign Affairs Dmytro Kuleba referred to as Ukraine’s “long-term” efforts to counter Russia in the subcontinent. Kuleba’s statement was followed by a major trip to the region in late September to kick off a new diplomatic effort to expand Ukraine’s visibility in Africa.
Before commencing with Kyiv’s major diplomatic initiative Ukrainian efforts took on a military dimension on September 20 when a group of Russian-backed Sudanese forces were attacked by a sortie of 14 First Person View (FPV) drones in an unprecedented attack that reportedly involved Ukrainian special forces. Using commercially available FPV Chinese-made loitering drones frequently used by Ukraine in Donbas the unprecedented attack appears to be the first-ever effort by Kyiv to target Russian-backed allies in Africa.
The Kremlin-supported military contractor Wagner is widely involved in arming and assisting the Rapid Support Force (RSF), led by former army deputy chief Mohamed Hamdan Daglo, who is also known as Hemedti. The RSF is embroiled in a conflict with Sudanese army chief Abdel Fattah al-Burhan following a military coup led by Daglo this spring which has plunged Sudan into a major civil war.
News of Ukrainian involvement in an attack on the RSF occurred when a Ukrainian military source speaking to CNN described the September 20 attack as “the work of a non-Sudanese military.” Later a Ukrainian military source acknowledged to CNN that “Ukrainian special services were likely responsible.” Video footage of the attack indicated that as many as 14 drones were involved in several drone strikes on RSF forces.
Video taken from CNN of the Drone Attack on Russian-backed RSF Forces in Suddan
These attacks were viewed as highly unusual in the ongoing Sudan conflict and occurred on a key bridge used by RSF forces in and around Omdurman, a city across the Nile River from the capital of Khartoum. In one of those attacks Ukrainian text was seen on the screen prior to the explosion. Wim Zwijnenburg, project leader for PAX, a Dutch peace organization, told CNN “Such (FPV) loitering drones are being seen in the African continent for the first time ever.” Zwijnenburg is regarded as a specialist in military technologies, including drones.
Suspicion over growing Ukrainian involvement in Sudan, as well as the Sudanese attack, took an interesting turn on September 23rd. Three days after the attack Ukrainian President Zelensky unexpectedly met with the President of the Transitional Sovereign Council of Sudan, Abdel Fattah al-Burhan during a brief stopover at Shannon airport in Ireland. The Ukrainian President held the unscheduled meeting on his return to Ukraine following the UN General Assembly (UNGA) meeting in New York. The meeting strongly indicated that Sudan is becoming a Ukrainian priority and likely heralds the beginning of deeper security cooperation between the two countries.
Following Zelenskyy’s discussions with the Sudanese leader the Ukrainian President released a photo of the meeting thanking Sudan for its support of Ukrainian sovereignty and territorial integrity in a posting on X, formerly Twitter. Zelenskyy made the point of noting: “I am grateful for Sudan’s consistent support of Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity,” emphasizing that the two nations “face common security challenges,” an obvious reference to Russian involvement in Sudan.
Interestingly enough, in the picture posted by Zelenskky on X, his team of advisers also included newly appointed Ukrainian Minister of Defense Rustem Umerov who participated in the meeting with Burhan. Umerov is a Crimean Tatar and also a Muslim which also hints of an Islamic connection with Sudan in addition to being an indicator of military and security cooperation. Zelenskyy’s comment and the presence of Umerov in the meeting obviously left many observers wondering what sort of cooperation may follow from the meeting in Ireland.
Given the reports of Ukrainian involvement in the attacks on Hemedti’s RSF forces, it would not be surprising if Zelenskyy had created a formal channel for sharing intelligence information on Wagner. Four weeks before the meeting with Burhan the co-founder of Wagner Yevgenii Prigozhin died in a mysterious plane crash on August 23, which led to great turmoil and uncertainty in the ranks of the Wagner forces following his death. Based upon these meetings Ukraine is likely becoming a key source of information for the Sudanese President on Wagner’s future and its operations elsewhere in Africa.
Ukrainian Diplomacy in Africa
A week after the stopover meeting with Burhan in Ireland, and ten days after the drone attack on the RSF, Ukraine launched one of its biggest war-time African diplomatic efforts in its 23-year history of independence. On September 30, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba began a 10-day trip to Africa, beginning his visit by stating that Ukraine has begun systematic efforts to “revive” its relations with Africa and that one of the purposes of his trip was to “free Africa from Russia’s grip” on the continent. Kuleba went on to state that: “many years have been lost, but we will push forward the Ukrainian-African renaissance, revive these relations. This continent needs systematic and long-term work,” the Foreign Minister said.
Before the Ukrainian diplomatic and security upsurge in Africa, the Ukrainian Foreign Minister gave an exclusive interview to France 24 on August 17 at the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry in Kyiv. Kuleba outlined Ukraine’s plans for Africa by describing the growing importance of Africa to Ukrainian diplomacy. During his interview, Kuleba also portended Ukrainian willingness to confront Russia militarily in Africa; acknowledging that while “we are starting from scratch in Africa. This continent needs systematic and long-term work…It’s not something that happens overnight.” Kuleba asserted the Kremlin’s two powerful tools for its work in Africa were “fighters from the Wagner mercenary group and propaganda.”
Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba Meeting in Senegal in October 2023
Kuleba also stressed the strategic importance of grain shipments to Africa as a part of Russian influence. Speaking about Russia's withdrawal from the Black Sea Grain Initiative, Kuleba stressed that “people in Africa have seen that all Putin's stories about how he cares about African countries are lies.”
Kuleba also distinguished the difference between Russian and Ukrainian intentions in Africa by suggesting that Russia was operating in Africa as a quasi-colonial power: "We don't want to be another Russia. Our strategy is not to replace Russia, but to liberate Africa from Russian rule," he said.
During his interview, Kuleba pointed out that before the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, "Africa was one of the largest markets for sales of Ukrainian military products before the full-scale war. Today, Africa is waiting for Ukrainian companies to return to this market for the sale of weapons. Kuleba said that “there is a slow erosion of Russia’s position in Africa, referring to Liberia, Kenya, Ghana, Ivory Coast, Mozambique, Rwanda and Equatorial Guinea as Ukraine’s new partners on the continent.
Kuleba emphasized that Ukraine would be interested in placing arms production on the territory of these states and once the war was over, they would welcome a return of Ukrainian arms exports to Africa. The Ukrainian foreign minister also said the second thing Africa is interested in is, actually, the placement of Ukrainian arms and ammunition production on the territory of Africa, an apparent slap at the Kremlin which sells arms but refuses to transfer arms production to the continent.
Playing Catch-up In Africa
To any outside observer, it would appear Ukraine has a long road ahead of it as Kyiv seeks to build influence in Africa to counter a half century head start by the Kremlin due to its experience in the Cold War. Upon further investigation, however, Ukraine does retain some level of ties it can build upon in its efforts to counter Kremlin influence in Africa that should not be dismissed.
First, the Ukrainian education system has been a major attraction for students from the Third World who often are unable to gain admission into European universities due to competition and visa entry restrictions. Prior to the February 2022 Russian invasion, Ukraine hosted approximately 16,000 African students who were enrolled in Ukrainian universities, studying medicine, engineering and military affairs. Morocco, Nigeria, and Egypt represent the top 10 countries. An estimated 20,000 students from India also attended Ukrainian universities as well.
Second, Ukraine enjoyed an extensive arms presence in Africa through the sales of small arms and ammunition to the developing world. Ukrainian military personnel also participated in as many as six UN peacekeeping operations in Africa that date back to the early 1990s. These countries include Angola, Cote d’Ivoire, Sierra Leone, Liberia, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and Sudan, where Ukrainian special forces took part and gained experience operating in the African subcontinent. Ukraine to date has dispatched 37,000 servicemen to various parts of the world for peacekeeping operations which offers Kyiv valuable intelligence capabilities to draw upon in regions like Africa.
Ukraine’s New Strategic Partner in Sudan?
In yet another twist to the growing involvement of Ukraine in Sudan, Bellingcat posted a series of videos examining in great detail some of the pictures taken of fair-skinned men operating sniper rifles that were reportedly in Sudan against Wagner-backed forces. A longer video was first posted on the Ukrainian Telegram channel on babel.ua, on October 6. It was subsequently shared by Telegram channels such as Trukha Ukraine and the news website Babel.ua. The Ukraine website later claimed that sources in the country’s intelligence community had confirmed that the men in the video were Ukrainians fighting against the RSF.
Ukrainian Sniper Operating in Sudan: Source Bellingcat
More importantly, Ukrainskaia Pravda recirculated a report picked up by babel.ua that Kyrylo Budanov, the head of Ukraine’s military intelligence service HUR MOU had indicated that “Ukraine will destroy Russian war criminals wherever in the world they may be.” Budanov’s statement appeared to signal that Ukraine would begin to hunt down Russian war criminals in various parts of the world and that Ukrainian involvement in Sudan may have been the first opening salvo in pursuing that goal.
According to Hudson military analyst Can Kasapoğlu, Sudan is not a new territory to operate in for Ukrainian military intelligence, the GUR. In April 2023 the GUR firmly indicated it had established itself in Sudan when hostilities broke out there in April 2023 between the Rapid Support Forces headed by Hemedti and Burhan. During those clashes, Ukrainian military intelligence evacuated 138 Ukrainian citizens and posted news about the operation on its official Facebook page. This indicates that the GUR does have experience operating in Sudan and dispatched liaison and special forces teams to assist in the evacuation.
As to why and how Ukrainian special services have stepped up their operations in Sudan, the answer appears to be related to what Bellingcat detected in its video investigation about Ukrainian snipers involved in attacks on the RSF. Bellingcat pointed out that Ukrainian snipers were drinking a special brand of a Saudi energy drink called Lift Up, as well as an Egyptian brand of bottled water. These clues do not seem to have been a coincidence. Following these developments amidst growing Ukrainian involvement in Sudan, it raises the question of who might be supporting Ukraine’s newly emerging operations in Sudan. The emergence of the Saudi energy drink as a favorite beverage of Ukrainian snipers creates suspicion that Ukraine could be working with Saudi Arabia to counter Russian influence in Sudan.
The Ukraine-Saudi relationship rapidly blossomed earlier this year when Ukrainian President Zelenskyy was invited by Saudi Arabia to attend the Arab League Summit in Riyadh prior to attending the G7 summit in Tokyo, Japan. Zelenskyy made his first ever visit to Saudi Arabia which likely paved the path to future Ukrainian-Saudi cooperation in Sudan.
The Ukrainian press hailed the Zelensky meeting with Saudi ruler MBS as pointing to a new strategic level of relations between the two countries. Presidential Adviser Andrii Yermak noted that the level of diplomatic interaction between Saudi Arabia and Ukraine had been virtually non-existent and that the Saudi Foreign Minister had only visited Ukraine once in 31 years of diplomatic relations.
Saudi Arabia has invested significant resources in Sudan following the April 2023 coup by Hemedti and his RSF. Saudi Arabia and Egypt are both major supporters of the Sudanese government led by Burhan and are reportedly providing military support to his forces to counter the Russian-backed support for the RSF. Sudan is also a mini regional war being waged between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) over Sudan due to the fact that the RSF receives significant military and financial support from Abu Dhabi.
Outlook
Ukraine’s growing involvement and willingness to take on Russian-backed proxies in Sudan indicates that Africa is emerging as a new arena of competition with Moscow. Ukraine certainly lacks the resources to counter Russian influence but if it enjoys the backing of outside powers with deep financial resources, such as Saudi Arabia, then this rivalry may intensify and possibly expand to other parts of the subcontinent where Russian-backed Wagner forces are actively supporting Kremlin interests, especially Libya or Mali.
Russia, and before it the USSR, enjoyed significant relations with an African continent consisting of nations embittered by a century of French and British colonial rule. Russian President Putin continues to maximize this resentment significantly. In July, Russian President Putin hosted in St. Petersburg the representative of 49 African countries, including 17 heads of state where he offered debt write-offs and grain to court allies and boasted about Russian attention to Africa, using the summit as an opportunity to offer free grain to six Africa nations and assured them that Moscow was prepared to help these states stave off a global food crisis. Ironically, the week before Putin had announced Russia was withdrawing from the Black Sea Grain Initiative that allowed Ukraine to keep par with Russia in exporting its own agricultural products to Africa.
Militarily and diplomatically, Ukraine has an immense challenge ahead of it if Kyiv seeks to counter the Kremlin’s decades-old dominance in Africa. Certainly, Kyiv has its work cut out for it, but if an apparent Saudi-Ukrainian strategic relationship is truly emerging in Sudan then Ukraine and a resource-rich ally like Saudi Arabia could create a new front to seriously counter Wagner’s activities in Sudan and weaken Putin’s efforts to expand Russian influence in Africa.
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